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原文文本 - English英语 This material was prepared by the Investment Advisory Centre (IAC) of ABN AMRO. It is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. While based on information believed to be reliable, no guarantee is given that it is accurate or complete. While we endeavour to update on a reasonable basis the information and opinions contained herein, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. The opinions, forecasts, assumptions, estimates, derived valuations and target price(s) contained in this material are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. The investments referred to in this material may not be appropriate or suitable for the specific investment objectives, financial situation, knowledge, experience, or individual needs of recipients and should not be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgement. ABN AMRO or its officers, directors, employee benefit programs or co-workers, including persons which were involved in preparing or issuing this material, may from time to time hold long- or short-positions in securities, warrants, futures, options, derivatives or other financial instruments referred to in this material. ABN AMRO may offer and render at any time investment banking-, commercial banking-, credit-, advice-, and other services to the issuer of any security referred to in this material. Pursuant to offering and rendering such services, ABN AMRO may come into possession of information not included in this material and ABN AMRO may prior or immediately after publication thereof have acted based on such information. ABN AMRO may in past year have acted as lead manager or co-lead manager with regard to a public offering of securities from issuers as mentioned in this material. The stated price of any securities mentioned herein is as of the date indicated and is not a representation that any transaction can be effected at this price. Neither ABN AMRO nor other persons shall be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, consequential, punitive or exemplary damages, including lost profits arising in any way from the information contained in this material. This material is for the use of intended recipients only and the contents may not be reproduced, redistributed, or copied in whole or in part for any purpose without ABN AMRO's prior express consent. This document is solely intended for dissemination amongst private/retail customers in a PC country. Distribution to private/retail customers in any jurisdiction that would require registration or licensing of the distributor which the distributor does not currently have, is not permitted. Material means all research information contained in any form including but not limited to hard copy, electronic form, presentations, e-mail, SMS or WAP.
原文文本 - Chinese汉语 Global economy: some stabilisation but still uncertainty
• Global economic growth strong in third quarter, but surveys point to a weakening ahead.
• Credit turmoil and US housing collapse yet to translate into real economic weakness.
• Oil prices have meant higher inflation and inflation expectations, worrying central banks enough to limit potential easing.
US: housing deteriorates but growth surges
• US housing market downturn worsened in September, with sales posting new lows and house prices continuing to decline. However, the overall economy surged in the third quarter with growth on the quarter reaching 3.9 percent (annual rate) thanks to strong consumer spending and rising net exports.
• The Fed believes it has provided enough ‘insurance’ against a wider credit crunch and now sees risks balanced between growth and inflation.
• Even after an easing of inflationary pressures, September headline inflation rose sharply as oil pushed up energy prices.
翻译文本 - English英语 Insurance consumption enters into a new upside cycle, new business multipliers reach 25x-36x . The life insurance business, property insurance and gross premium income over the period of Jan 2008 till April 2008 has been increased by 62%, 21% and 50% respectively. The universal / investment link insurance sales are in another new heat wave after participating insurance hot sales in 01/02. We expect the life insurance business in 2008 may see the increase of 45%-50%; the new business value growth will not be less than 25% -30%, whilst the new business multiplier will be 25x - 36x.
Investment return downs from the peak to 6%¡À0.5%, but better than actuarial assumptions. Thanks to higher-than-expected equity gain, the insurance capital investment return in 06/07 reached its historical high. The return in 08/09 will back to normal level at 6%¡À0.5%, but still higher than 5.5% long term investment return assumption . Given that the higher sales ratio on universal insurance has increased the average capital cost of Premium, the investment yield assumption will remain unchanged for embedded value valuation.
an UK MBA graduate with the Distinction Award with working experience on the field of Finance/Banking/Business with multinational companies. Hard working, responsible and deliver the job on time.
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